Episode 27 — State confidence and uncertainty like a pro
Communicating the level of certainty in your findings is a hallmark of professional intelligence, requiring the use of standardized "words of estimative probability" to avoid misleading stakeholders. This episode focuses on how to calibrate your confidence levels—high, moderate, or low—based on the quality, reliability, and quantity of your evidence. We explore the critical difference between a "fact" (what we know) and an "assessment" (what we think based on the facts), emphasizing the need for technical humility in your reporting. For the GCTI exam, you must be proficient in using terms like "almost certainly" or "likely" according to established intelligence community standards to describe the probability of future adversary actions. Troubleshooting involves resisting the pressure from leadership to provide "one hundred percent certainty" when the data is incomplete or ambiguous. By stating confidence like a pro, you protect your personal credibility and ensure that decision-makers understand the inherent risks and margins of error in your analysis. Produced by BareMetalCyber.com, where you’ll find more cyber audio courses, books, and information to strengthen your educational path. Also, if you want to stay up to date with the latest news, visit DailyCyber.News for a newsletter you can use, and a daily podcast you can commute with.
